Originally posted on A to Z Sports  |  By Travis May  |  Last updated 2/21/24

Patrick Mahomes has three Super Bowl victories, over 30000 passing yards, and more than 250 passing touchdowns when you include both regular and postseason stats through his first seven seasons.

There are so many great numbers that suggest Patrick Mahomes might just be on pace to be the greatest of all time in the NFL. In fact, when you compare their first seven seasons, it’s clear that Patrick Mahomes has actually had a way faster start to his career than the current “GOAT” Tom Brady did for the Patriots.

But there’s one meaningful metric that proves Patrick Mahomes is on GOAT trajectory, and it’s far more significant than any of the raw numbers that you see in this viral post following Super Bowl LVIII.

Having more raw production and good looking rate stats is nice, but properly adjusting for the context and expectations of every single play is much more useful when comparing quarterbacks. That’s where the best modern statistical measure we have to compare players, teams, and on-field success on a down-to-down basis comes in.

Total Expected Points Added

Patrick Mahomes has now accumulated around 1300 Total Expected Points Added (EPA) in his first six seasons as a starter. The next closest NFL quarterback when comparing their “first six seasons as a starter” didn’t even crack 1000 total EPA.

[More on what EPA is here shortly.]

In this post below by Michael Valenzano, he breaks down some of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game via their total EPA through their first six seasons as a starter, and it’s quite the revelation. Aaron Rodgers was certainly trending towards being one of the best of all time when he was in his prime. Peyton Manning and Josh Allen both had fast starts as well. But what does EPA really mean and how does it prove Mahomes is on GOAT trajectory?

At this point if you’re a football fan there’s a great chance you have at least heard EPA mentioned before. Some NFL commentators have even begun using the term during nationally televised broadcasts. It may sound like some black box “analytics” tool that no one understands, but at its core EPA is quite simple.

Expected Points Added simply measures how effectively a team performs on a play-by-play basis given key contextual information. There is an expected points outcome before any and every play begins. What happens on each play (yards gained or lost, getting a first down, turning the ball over, or scoring) dictates how many points over the original expectation were added.

For example, the average drive that begins at a team’s 25-yard line has an expected point value around 1.06. Mahomes completes a 15-yard pass for a first down which takes the Chiefs to the 40-yard line. Now the drive has an expected point value of 1.88 points. The difference between 1.88 and 1.06 is 0.82 points. So that means Mahomes added 0.82 expected points on that play. If Mahomes had been sacked, turned the ball over, or just simply thrown an incomplete pass on the play it would have resulted in negative EPA.

EPA simply accounts for the context and value of every single play. Knowing this, when we look at the compounding value of Mahomes’ consistent execution above expectation over time it becomes abundantly clear that Mahomes is truly in a league of his own.

Via A To Z Sports

Mahomes eclipsed his first 500 total EPA around the same time that he won his first Super Bowl through just 36 career NFL starts. Only three other quarterbacks considered among the greatest to ever play the game surpassed 500 total EPA through their first six seasons starting. Mahomes did it in two.

Mahomes then coasted beyond 1000 total EPA before his 80th career start. It took every single other quarterback in NFL history at least 20 more games to do the same.

Now that NFL defenses have completely revolutionized how they defend against explosive plays (due specifically to the dominance of the Chiefs offense) Mahomes has slowed down just a bit, but he is still very much on GOAT trajectory.

Yes, he still needs to continue winning Super Bowls. And yes, many believe he may need to play a lot longer in order to rack up greater career totals to ever be considered the GOAT in the NFL, especially considering all of Tom Brady’s accolades. However, right now, based on the most meaningful qualitative statistical measure we have in the sport Patrick Mahomes is already well on his way to being the clear and unanimous greatest football player of all time.

More must-reads: