USC quarterback Caleb Williams is likely to be taken No. 1 overall by the Bears.
(Marcio Jose Sanchez / Associated Press)

NFL Media’s lead draft analyst provided scouting insights on quarterbacks Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

USC’s Caleb Williams brings to mind Patrick Mahomes with his improvisational ability and track record of having to overcome porous defenses on his own teams.

J.J. McCarthy?

The Michigan QB recalls self-described “game manager” Alex Smith, the mobile, heady Helix High School graduate who took five NFL teams to the postseason and mentored Mahomes as his successor after never reaching a Super Bowl.

Those opinions come from Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout and Christian High School alum who leads the NFL Network’s draft coverage that will culminate April 25-27 in Detroit.

Saying “you don’t want to compare somebody to the best player on the planet,” Jeremiah this week nevertheless drew parallels between Williams and Mahomes.

“Pat’s last year in Texas Tech, they were 128th in scoring defense. This year, USC was 121st,” Jeremiah said. “(Williams) was constantly chasing points. That led to some of the bad habits that creeped in a little bit this year.”

Jeremiah said he doubts Williams’ flaws will keep the Bears from drafting him first overall rather than trading down and retaining Justin Fields as their starter. Bears General Manager Ryan Poles was director of college scouting for the Chiefs in 2017, when they drafted Mahomes 10th overall as Smith’s replacement. Seeing similarities to Packers Hall of Famer Brett Favre, coach Andy Reid and scout Brett Veach dealt three premium picks to get him.

“Pat needed some time to clean some things up and got a chance to sit for a year,” noted Jeremiah, who scouted for Baltimore, Cleveland and Philadelphia. “I don’t think Caleb is going to be afforded the same luxury, but you can put a plan in place where you put more on his plate the longer that he goes.”

If Williams stands as the player in this year’s draft class with the best chance to become a Super Bowl MVP — an award Mahomes has won three times with Kansas City — the most consequential player in terms of draft-night fallout may be McCarthy.

Described by Jeremiah as “an acquired taste” whose NFL prospects have improved as teams have learned more about him, McCarthy could induce a splashy trade involving two teams slotted in the top half of the first round, said the former scout.

The poised, slender McCarthy guided Michigan to a 27-1 record across his three seasons — including a 15-0 mark this past year that produced the school’s first unanimous national title since 1948. The 6-foot-3, 203-pounder threw for 49 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and rushed for 10 TDs in his career.

“Alex Smith had a similar build, played the game from the shoulders up really well,” Jeremiah said of the 6-4 former Utah star who weighed 217 at the 2005 NFL Scouting Combine and went first to the 49ers. “He was pretty athletic to get out and make some plays.”

While projecting Williams, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye and LSU signal-caller Jayden Daniels for the draft’s top three slots, Jeremiah raised the prospect of McCarthy inspiring a number of QB-needy teams slotted between the sixth and 15th picks to propose a trade to either the Cardinals or Chargers, who hold the fourth and fifth picks.

“You’re rooting for J.J. McCarthy” to attract a lower-slotted team, Jeremiah said of the Chargers, who employ him as a radio analyst.

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy led Michigan to a national championship before turning pro.
(Ryan Sun / Associated Press)

Coincidentally or not, Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has said his former Michigan QB will command scouting grades that lift him above the Chargers’ No. 5 slot.

“When they see the athleticism, when they do the interviews, and they start digging into how this young man is wired — and he’s only 21 — mark my words, don’t be surprised when he’s maybe the No.1 quarterback off the board,” Harbaugh told The Rich Eisen Show.

Michigan supported McCarthy with a powerful ground game, sturdy pass protection, adequate pass-catchers and a dominant defense.

“Gosh, they don’t ask him to do much,” Jeremiah said of his initial reaction to McCarthy’s body of work. “They run the ball. They play great defense. He will manage the game and get them through it and make a couple of plays here and there.”

Jeremiah grew more impressed as he watched more film.

“He has a really, really quick mind,” he said. “He has a quick release. Just everything he does is real smooth.”

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix round out the six QBs who Jeremiah believes could go in the first round. He said both will benefit from rare adversity they experienced as QBs who each directed two major-college programs.

Asked about Penix, he said the 23-year-old lefty’s best fit would be an offense that puts him under center, supplies a “really good run game,” uses a lot of play action and pushes the ball down the field.

Attach the following disclaimer to all of the above: fewer than half of the QBs drafted in the first round don’t pan out.

And consider that eight picks before Reid and Veach went big on Mahomes, the Bears took North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky second overall.

Projecting how a college QB will react to the NFL’s speed and complexity, in addition to the narrow hash marks and longer seasons, can be like projecting how a math student will transition from basic algebra to trigonometry and calculus.