Today, I look back at the 2023 season, highlighting some of the top ADP values, breakouts, and busts at the quarterback position while also taking an early look at potential candidates in these areas for the 2024 season.

Quarterback Draft Busts

2023 Top Busts

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Mahomes has only two QB1 finishes over his seven-year career. Yet, he gets drafted as the QB1 in most fantasy leagues every year. Last season, the superstar finished as the QB8, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game, averaging only 0.4 more fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson. Furthermore, Mahomes had the second-fewest passing touchdowns of his career as the starter while setting a career-high in interceptions (14). While fantasy players should consider him a top-five option for next season, Mahomes is no longer in the QB1 conversation.

Trevor Lawrence (JAC)

The fantasy industry had high expectations for Lawrence heading into his third NFL season. Unfortunately, he was a massive bust despite the addition of Calvin Ridley. The former Clemson star’s touchdown production declined by four while his interceptions nearly doubled compared to the 2022 season. Lawrence finished the year as the QB12, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game. However, he was the QB15 on a points-per-game basis among quarterbacks with at least six starts. Hopefully, Lawrence and the Jaguars turn things around in 2024.

2024 Potential Busts

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

The former Alabama star began the 2023 season on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, Tagovailoa’s production fell off a cliff in the season half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Unfortunately, Miami has three starting offensive linemen set to be free agents in a few weeks and limited means to improve the team around the quarterback. Between the late-season struggles and lack of rushing upside, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-drat list.

Caleb Williams (USC)

Last year, C.J. Stroud had a top-10 season as a rookie. However, he is an outlier and not likely the start of a trend. He landed in the perfect situation to make him a fantasy star as a rookie. Meanwhile, Williams should be the top pick in all superflex dynasty rookie drafts. Yet, fantasy players shouldn’t expect a massive fantasy year out of him in 2024. Drafting the former USC star as anything more than a high-upside QB2 in redraft leagues is a mistake.

More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep