The 2023-24 MLB offseason has begun, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.

Whether it’s a nine-figure free agent deal that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade that has all of baseball buzzing, we’ll weigh in with what it all means, for next season and beyond.

Follow along as our experts evaluate each move. This article will continue to be updated, so check back in for the freshest analysis from the beginning of the hot stove season through the start of spring training.

And then there were two — and none. After Matt Chapman’s long offseason finally ended when he reached an agreement with the Giants on Friday night, the list of dangling elite free agents is down to pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. Among Kiley McDaniel’s top 20 free agents, Chapman is the last position player off the board. Finally, less than three weeks before the Dodgers and Padres kick off the MLB regular season in Korea, the hot stove portion of the calendar seems to finally be drawing to a close.

Because of the two opt-outs, Chapman’s three-year deal is a structural twin of the pact that late-signing Cody Bellinger inked with the Cubs last week, though the total value of Bellinger’s deal ($80 million) is higher. This kind of deal is always player-friendly, as it provides a chance to revisit free agency if they have a strong year and want to explore the market. If the player struggles, on the other hand, or simply likes the situation in which they’ve landed, they have the security of the options seasons.

The deals aren’t as sweet for the teams, though in this case, Chapman upgrades the San Francisco roster and if he does stay for only a year, it’s a per-year value ($20 million for the first season, then scales down from there) that is a bargain compared to pre-free-agency projections. Chapman has settled into a 3.5 to 4.5 bWAR performer at this phase of his career, though he had back-to-back seasons of 7.6 and 7.8 early in his career.

While neither the Giants nor anyone else should expect that MVP-level production now that it’s five years in the rearview mirror and Chapman is 31, those elite seasons do represent a certain kind of upside for this deal, especially because Chapman figures to be highly motivated. He’s not likely to get back to that seven-win player range but even the version of Chapman we’ve seen over the past three years is a solid value at this contract amount.

The ballpark fit is a concern though as Oracle Park is the fourth-worst home run park for righty hitters, per Statcast’s three-year rolling averages. However, Oakland Coliseum is one of the three parks below it and Chapman did just fine there. You just never know how a player will transition to a new place. One of the best parks for righties is the one he’s leaving — Rogers Centre — and Chapman struggled terribly there in 2023 while putting up much better results on the road. Also, the shape of Chapman’s approach changed in 2023 — more line drives, more opposite-field hitting — and that swing, if maintained, will play better at Oracle than his 2021-2022 ball-in-play distribution.

All in all, it’s a nice get for the Giants. Chapman isn’t just a significant upgrade from whatever combination of Wilmer Flores, Casey Schmitt and J.D. Davis the Giants planned to use at third base, he might now be San Francisco’s best position player. The roster is a little heavy on righty-hitting infielders, so it’ll be interesting to see if there is some maneuvering left to be done, not just to balance the roster but perhaps free up a little more room under the CBT threshold for more hot stove pursuits.

As it is, for all the concern we’ve had about the Giants’ inability to land the top free agents, this offseason they’ve now signed four of McDaniel’s top 20: Chapman, Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee. The winter hasn’t turned out so cold in San Francisco after all. — Bradford Doolittle