One thing we will definitely not be doing today is wading into the rhetorical quagmire of sleeper vs. breakout vs. draft value vs. league-winner vs. various other overused fantasy terms.
Each fantasy league is its own unique community, featuring managers of different experience levels and tendencies. One league’s super-sleeper can be a third-round pick in another.
Today, we’re discussing six players who will generally (but not always) fall outside the top 75 picks in mixed-league drafts, all of whom have a shot to massively outproduce their ADPs. Prospects are excluded because we dealt with those guys earlier in the week.
These are certainly not obscure names, but each is a strong candidate to level up in 2024.
At age 24, Morel hit 26 bombs for the Cubs in 107 games, plus he launched another 11 homers at Triple-A Iowa. He was one of only 18 major league batters last season to maintain a hard-hit rate of 50% or greater over 400 plate appearances, which places him in the company of guys like Judge, Shohei, Yordan, Soto, Olson and Acuña. There’s plenty of swing-and-miss to Morel’s game, but his power is undeniable. He’s working at third base this spring, giving him an additional path to regular playing time. If we get 600 plate appearances from Morel, he’s clearly capable of a 40-homer season.
While my official position on starting pitchers is that they are all grifters who intend to do us harm, we can’t just ignore talent and team context. It’s kinda tempting to build a starting fantasy rotation around the Dodgers’ top 3-4 starters, because A) the team is probably gonna win like 105 games and B) these pitchers are all so reasonably priced in drafts.
Miller was, of course, excellent as a rookie, going 11-4 while striking out 119 batters in 124.1 innings and delivering a WHIP of 1.10. His 3.76 ERA didn’t adequately express all the things he did well (3.51 FIP, 3.45 xERA). Miller ranked among the leaders in limiting walks (2.32 BB/9) and home runs (0.87 HR/9), which is plenty encouraging. His minor-league K-rates suggest serious strikeout potential, as you’d expect from a guy with triple-digit velocity. He’s reportedly been off-limits in trade talks and he was actually present at the free agent pitch meeting to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which suggests LA’s front office considers him a core piece.
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