Seyed Mohammad Marandi | Israel-Turkey Conflict Could Explode in Syria and Lebanon

Political analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi has warned that rising regional tensions could eventually trigger a broader confrontation involving Israel, Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon. Speaking in a recent interview, Marandi discussed the competing ambitions of regional powers, the ongoing conflict surrounding Lebanon and Gaza, and the possibility that Syria could become a battleground for future proxy conflicts.

The discussion began with questions about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his increasingly confrontational rhetoric toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Erdogan has repeatedly criticized Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, while emphasizing Turkey’s strategic interests in neighboring countries such as Syria. According to the interviewer, statements suggesting that Turkey’s security begins in Damascus and Beirut have fueled concerns that Ankara may be pursuing a broader regional agenda reminiscent of Ottoman-era influence.

Marandi, however, argued that current developments in Syria and Lebanon are shaped by a much wider network of regional actors and geopolitical interests. He dismissed the idea that Erdogan alone is restraining developments in Lebanon, claiming that resistance groups in Iraq and Iran have issued strong warnings against any major military escalation involving Syria and Lebanon.

According to Marandi, the Syrian government currently faces pressure from both regional and international actors. He accused authorities in Damascus of cooperating with the United States in restricting cross-border assistance between Syria and Lebanon. In his view, these policies are intended to weaken Hezbollah and other resistance groups operating in Lebanon.

Marandi also criticized the Lebanese government, arguing that it has failed to effectively support civilians affected by the ongoing conflict. He alleged that restrictions on the movement of displaced people, along with limitations on humanitarian assistance entering the country, have worsened the suffering of those fleeing violence in southern Lebanon.

The analyst claimed that several Western governments and regional Arab states have encouraged policies designed to isolate Hezbollah and its support base. According to his assessment, Lebanon’s political leadership has chosen a strategy of cooperation with Western powers rather than relying on regional alliances, particularly with Iran.

Despite these pressures, Marandi praised Hezbollah and its supporters for what he described as extraordinary resilience. He argued that the movement has continued military operations against Israel despite facing attacks, political isolation, and economic hardship. He portrayed the organization and its supporters as a diverse coalition drawn from different social, religious, and economic backgrounds.

A major theme of Marandi’s remarks was the connection between developments in Lebanon and the broader war in Gaza. He argued that Hezbollah’s military engagement along Israel’s northern border was intended to divert Israeli military resources away from Gaza. According to him, supporters of the resistance understood the risks involved but believed they had a moral responsibility to act in solidarity with Palestinians.

Marandi further suggested that global perceptions of Israel are changing rapidly as a result of the ongoing conflict. He claimed that international criticism of Israeli policies has intensified and that public opinion in many parts of the world is increasingly questioning long-standing political narratives regarding the Middle East.

The interview also turned to Lebanon’s diplomatic strategy. The interviewer cited remarks made by a Lebanese foreign minister who reportedly acknowledged that Lebanon lacks significant military or economic leverage in negotiations with Israel. According to the statement, Lebanon’s primary option is to seek support from the United States in efforts to secure Israeli concessions.

Marandi responded critically, arguing that such an approach reflects political weakness and excessive dependence on Washington. He suggested that relying on American mediation without possessing independent sources of leverage leaves Lebanon in a vulnerable position during negotiations.

The conversation then shifted to Lebanon’s complex political history. Marandi referred to the 1982 Sabra and Shatila massacre, one of the most controversial episodes of the Lebanese Civil War. He argued that historical events continue to influence political alignments and public perceptions within Lebanon today.

According to Marandi, Hezbollah emerged as a response to Israel’s invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon in the early 1980s. He described the organization as a national liberation movement that ultimately contributed to Israel’s withdrawal from much of southern Lebanon in 2000. Critics of Hezbollah, however, continue to view the group through a different lens, citing its military structure, regional alliances, and role in various conflicts across the Middle East.

Throughout the interview, Marandi emphasized that the region remains highly unstable and that the possibility of escalation cannot be ruled out. While he did not predict an immediate direct war between Turkey and Israel, he acknowledged that competing interests in Syria could eventually create conditions for confrontation, particularly through local allies and proxy forces.

As regional tensions continue to evolve, the future of Syria and Lebanon remains uncertain. Both countries sit at the intersection of competing geopolitical projects involving regional powers, international actors, and non-state organizations. Whether these rivalries lead to diplomatic compromise or further conflict will likely shape the Middle East’s political landscape for years to come.

Marandi’s comments reflect one perspective within a highly polarized debate. Nevertheless, they highlight the growing concern among analysts and observers that Syria and Lebanon may remain central arenas in the broader struggle for influence across the region.